空间相关性（全局莫兰指数）

按时期计算全局 Moran’s I、解析检验与置换检验。

核心代码

    def _fit_moran(self, *, decimals: int, title: str) -> None:
        prepared = self._prepare_panel(require_x=False)
        raw_permutations = self.spatial_options.get('moran_permutations')
        permutations = 999 if raw_permutations is None else max(0, min(int(raw_permutations), 999))
        seed = int(self.spatial_options.get('moran_seed') or 5282026)
        rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
        rows = []
        valid_years = []
        for index, time_value in enumerate(prepared['times']):
            values = prepared['y'][index]
            if np.nanstd(values) <= 1e-12:
                rows.append({
                    'time': time_value, 'i': np.nan, 'expected': -1 / max(len(values) - 1, 1),
                    'sd': np.nan, 'z': np.nan, 'p': np.nan,
                    'normality_sd': np.nan, 'normality_z': np.nan, 'normality_p': np.nan,
                    'randomization_sd': np.nan, 'randomization_z': np.nan,
                    'randomization_p': np.nan, 'permutation_p': np.nan,
                    'note': _('该时期变量没有横截面变异，已跳过'),
                })
                continue
            result = self._global_moran(values, self.weight_matrix, permutations, rng)
            rows.append({'time': time_value, **result, 'note': ''})
            valid_years.append((time_value, result['i']))

        if valid_years:
            trend = self._moran_trend_image(valid_years)
            if trend:
                self.chart_images.append(trend)

        self.model_stats = {
            'N': int(prepared['n'] * prepared['t']),
            'Groups': int(prepared['n']),
            'Periods': int(prepared['t']),
        }
        self.result_payload = {
            'global_moran': rows,
            'alignment_report': self.alignment_report,
            'seed': seed,
            'permutations': permutations,
        }
        self.custom_html = self._render_moran_html(rows, decimals, title)
        self.raw_output = json_like_text(self.result_payload)